Conceptual
We guess the effect of your own Venezuelan exodus on Colombian labor business. The commercial and you can societal drama within the Venezuela brought about among the primary migratory exoduses for the current decades: more 4 billion Venezuelans remaining their nation and you may close to step one.8 billion arrived in Colombia. We reveal that an increase in step 1 p.p off work supply owed this new migratory circulate caused a decline in hourly wages for the Colombia out-of 0.4% and you will a poor aftereffect of 0.1 p.p. to your a position rate regarding lower-competent gurus. This new lose inside the earnings was better for men, low-skilled and relaxed experts.
Introduction
This new Venezuelan migratory exodus is one of the most important episodes off forced migration around the globe: from the 4.5 billion of Venezuelans left its nation and you will moved in other places Footnote 1 (UNHCR 2019). The most famous destination for departing Venezuelan migrants are Colombia. Based on formal statistics, there had been nearly step 1.8 mil out of Venezuelans surviving in Colombia for the 2019, thanks to the brand new Venezuelan economic and political crisis, and therefore means a boost in the fresh display regarding Venezuelans residing in Colombia relative to the new national society away from 0.07% when you look at the 2015 to 3.6% as much as during the 2019.
This high bout of migration stands for a problem to policymakers just who attempt to see and you will measure the possibility economic and societal consequences of these a massive inflow regarding immigrants, specifically for machine nations eg Colombia.
Within this paper, I exploit the fresh new Venezuelan exodus to see the migratory episode’s impact on brand new Colombian labor field. I pertain a variations-in-differences strategy and you will conduct my study because of the due to the level of exposure around the Colombian departments to this exogenous labor also have amaze, both before and after 2016 (we.age. 2013-2019). In the 2016 a serious and unexpected migratory influx out of Venezuelans to Colombia happened in the event the limits among them regions was basically reopened immediately following almost per year away from closure.
My estimates suggest that this new intensification of migratory flow out of Venezuelans while it began with mid-2016 produced a significant get rid of within the aggregate earnings and also in the latest work rate of lowest-skilled professionals when you look at the Colombia. An increase in step 1 payment point (p.p.) of your labor pool due to the inflow out of Venezuelans produced an effective 0.4% decrease in earnings and you may a great 0.step one p.p. decrease in a position getting reduced-competent workers; this effect on employment depict a decline out of 0.18% relative to the common employment speed away from low-skilled Colombian experts for the 2015, up until the Venezuelan exodus. Once i imagine these outcomes to possess Colombian divisions found on the border that have Venezuela (La Guajira and you will Norte de- Santander), show train the refuses inside the wages and you will a career for all https://www.datingmentor.org/nl/reveal-overzicht experts was indeed around 10% and you may step three.4 p.p. (a good mediocre a job), correspondingly, adopting the edging is lso are-unsealed.
So you’re able to estimate the end result away from migration within these a couple of border divisions, I create a handling class using three departments out-of Colombia that weren’t highly influenced by immigration and displayed, an average of, comparable manner regarding work industry parameters and had similar socio-market characteristics before the edging re-opening. To include robustness to these abilities, We pertain a plastic material Handle Strategy and you will calculate the same distinctions-in-distinctions estimations given other combinations regarding departments regarding Colombia since manage groups.
I additionally imagine heterogeneous outcomes from the gender, amount of qualification, work formality and you will offered perhaps the everyone was locals or not. I find one to, into the aggregate, the new break down from inside the earnings is actually high for men than the girls and much healthier getting lowest-skilled professionals. Furthermore, the fresh new decline in wages was deeper having everyday specialists however, there are not very important differences when considering locals and you can low-natives; truly the only exception is that I have found a statistically high increase on informality rates one of low-locals inside the Colombia.
